What does the 60% base case look like?
Stifel's base case is constructive: cooling inflation, Fed cuts and a positive market. Crashtech's view is that even that path will feel messy for software teams, with AI hype deflating slowly rather than suddenly. Markets stop rewarding vague AI narratives, leaving tech firms to endure a multi-year period of corporate austerity to service hidden debt. Software teams adopt a permanent "diamond" structure with higher baseline maintenance costs.
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The Three Futures of the AI Boom: Bull, Bear, and the 60% Middle PathStifel gives 2026 a 25% bull case, a 15% bear case and a 60% constructive base case. What each path could mean for AI companies and developers.
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